Will AI Shrink Jobs or Expose a Labor Shortage by 2035?

Despite the talk about job losses from AI, we now know the opposite is true. The new Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections: 2025-2035 shows that we are likely to have labor shortages in the future, despite growth in AI productivity ahead.

What Happened

On September 2, 2026, Josh Bersin published an analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections for 2025 to 2035. His read: the US labor market will grow only modestly over the decade, while output per worker climbs sharply thanks to AI productivity gains. The headline story is not mass job displacement. It is a structural labor shortage colliding with rising productivity expectations across most sectors.

Why This Matters for HR Tech Marketers

If you sell into HR, talent, or workforce platforms, your buyer's pain is shifting under your feet. CHROs preparing 2027 budgets are not shopping for tools that promise headcount cuts. They are shopping for capacity, retention, internal mobility, and skills throughput. That reframes the entire value narrative for talent acquisition, LMS, workforce planning, and payroll platforms. Messaging built on automation-as-replacement will underperform. Messaging built on output-per-worker, skills velocity, and shortage-proofing will resonate with finance-approved deals. You need to audit whether your current campaigns speak to a shrinking workforce reality or an outdated efficiency pitch that no longer matches the CFO conversation.

The Starr Conspiracy's Take

The BLS data gives you permission to retire the tired AI-replaces-humans narrative and pivot to something more defensible: AI expands what a constrained workforce can produce. That reframe changes how you position pricing, ROI models, and case studies. If your website still leads with cost-take-out language, you are misaligned with how buyers are framing their 2027 problem statements. We walk clients through this shift in our work on demand strategy for HR tech, where the sharpest brands are already rewriting their category story around capacity and output rather than cost reduction.

What to Watch Next

Watch how the largest HCM and talent suites reposition messaging heading into HR Tech 2026 and Q1 analyst briefings. Expect at least two top-five partners to launch capacity or productivity-anchored campaigns by mid-2027. Also watch BLS revisions, which will likely tighten shortage projections further as immigration policy shifts.

Related Questions

Does AI actually reduce HR tech buyer demand?

No. Bersin's read of BLS data suggests the opposite: labor shortages will drive more investment in tools that raise output per worker. Demand for workforce, skills, and talent platforms remains strong, though the value story you tell must evolve.

How should HR tech brands reposition around productivity?

Anchor your narrative in output, skills velocity, and retention rather than automation or headcount reduction. Ground claims in client data showing how your platform expands capacity. Our B2B messaging framework walks through how to rebuild category positioning when the buyer's problem statement shifts.

What sectors face the sharpest labor shortages by 2035?

Healthcare, skilled trades, logistics, and technical services show the tightest projected gaps. If you sell workforce technology into these verticals, your total addressable market is expanding, not engagement, and your ICP messaging should reflect the shortage economics your buyers face daily.